Friday, October 17, 2008

For the doubters

I have a number of friends and family who are really nervous about this election. They have gotten so used to feeling robbed that they think this is a close race. This is not a close race, McCain is deeply in the hole as far as electoral votes goes.

Nate Silver's site FiveThirtyEight has a nice state map showing the current predictions:

Take a look at the state by state charts on Nate's site, it is too long to quote here but a few highlights.
FL Obama +4.5
OH Obama +3
ME Obama +13 (13!)
VA Obama +7
PA Obama +11
WV Mccain +0.1 (WV is close?!?)

As you can see, if McCain won via election stealing, it would be horrifically obvious. Obvious fraud will cause revolt in the US, so I wouldn't worry about it this cycle. McCain's crew is already trying to prepare a soft landing by claiming ACORN is committing voter fraud in Obama's favor.

This isn't Kerry vs Bush, this is Obama vs Bush's third term. Obama has handled his campaign 1000% better than Kerry did. He projects this cool competence that will be the envy of politicians for the next 20 years.

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